Burnside private dashboard · stocks
RKLB thesis brief
A lighter report-style view of the KB thesis, action framework, watch items and risks for Rocket Lab.
01
Current stance
Rocket Lab
Status
Held · dominant free-carry
Space systems + launch + defence prime
Action
Hold / trim-watch, not DCA
KB-derived stance; not live trade advice
Thesis health
86/100
Qualitative RL confidence, not a probability
Action framework: No fresh DCA while RKLB dominates portfolio. Reassess trims around major price/action/debt-pressure zones.
02
Why it matters
Thesis spine
- Beyond launch: spacecraft, payloads, optical systems and mission operations.
- SDA/TRKT3, GEO satellite production, Geost, Mynaric and Motiv support vertical integration.
- Remaining position is recovered-basis/free-carry style; sizing risk matters.
03
Controls
Watch + risk
Watch next
- Neutron maiden flight and national-security launch eligibility.
- Golden Dome/SDA/space-domain-awareness awards.
- Backlog conversion and Space Systems margins.
Main risks
- Still large relative to portfolio.
- Neutron delay/cost risk.
- Government contract timing can slip.
04
Traceability
KB source
Source: kb/wiki/stocks/tickers/rklb.md
This page is a presentation layer over the KB. It deliberately avoids fake precision and stale live pricing.